A recent report from Navigant Research examines the global market conditions and regulatory policies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), providing 10-year sales and population forecasts by powertrain type and scenario.
Recent developments in the PEV market, including the rollout of long-range battery EVs (BEVs) at sub-$40,000 price points, have positioned the segment for robust growth. Since PEVs were introduced in 2011, sales have experienced annual growth of 40% or more, and continued growth is expected.
“Battery costs have shrunk dramatically in the last five years and promise to shrink further with the commercialization of solid-state batteries on the horizon,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “In addition, increasing regulatory pressure in Europe and China may well push the PEV market to the aggressive end of the forecast range regardless of oil prices.”
While most of the global market can expect robust growth in the near term, the outlook in the United States is less certain based on the potential for federal level policy changes. According to the report, if US fuel efficiency policies and government subsidies are relaxed or removed, the country will find it difficult to keep pace with other markets.
The report, Market Data: EV Market Forecasts, analyzes the global market conditions and regulatory policies for PEVs. The study examines the next decade of the PEV market with a specific focus on how government interventions, vehicle economics, infrastructure, and automation will affect new markets and subsequent growth of the PEV population. The study provides 10-year sales and population forecasts of major regions by PEV powertrain type: BEV and plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV). Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios alongside historical data on BEV, PHEV, and overall light-duty vehicle sales. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, the company focuses on analysis and reporting on global clean technology markets.